Disregard ‘Uptober’, welcome REKTOBER: BTC Value Poised to DIVE Under $100k
As investors are growing increasingly enthusiastic over what many are referring to as ‘Uptober’, a number of cautionary signs are surfacing that indicate a potential crash across the trading market, which may cause BTC prices to dip below $100k, taking altcoins down with it.
The Bitcoin 1-day chart is indicating a bearish trend, coinciding with the recent government shutdown in the US. At the same time, a robust consensus among traders online anticipates new crypto highs in October and throughout Q4. Historically, when most investors agree on the market’s trajectory, the reverse usually takes place.
Today, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stands at $4.18T, reflecting a 1.9% increase in the past 24 hours, with
Bitcoin
2.68%
Bitcoin
Bitcoin
Price
$120,577.35
2.68% /24h
Volume in 24h
$58.89B
Price 7d
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trading around $118,700. As the optimism in the market grows, traders are initiating long positions, which may quickly trigger a long squeeze if Bitcoin falters at $120,000 or earlier.
(SOURCE: CoinGlass)
Global Economic Issues Bearish for Crypto
Just a note: previous performance doesn’t hodl much weight regarding future outcomes, particularly if the crypto market has experienced wild fluctuations. We are currently grappling with some major macroeconomic issues. Should inflation continue or begin to rise once more, the Fed may maintain these elevated interest rates for some time or possibly increase them further.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are increasingly viewed as riskier assets, which is promising news when interest rates are low. However, when traditional markets face difficulties and interest rates rise, these speculative assets often take a hit. Additionally, the tendency for crypto to correlate with tech stocks suggests that when the market declines, crypto could be negatively affected too.
Regulatory matters remain ambiguous. While we’ve observed some clarity, various enforcement actions and the potential for new regulations could still dissuade institutional interest. The excitement surrounding the imminent non-BTC crypto spot ETFs may already be factored into crypto market expectations given the classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” strategy.
And we cannot overlook market fluidity. This could pose a challenge if we witness some deleveraging in crypto markets or if the token supply of stablecoin decreases, as that diminishes overall purchasing power.
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Government Shutdown Could Signal a Black Swan Event
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) September 30, 2025
Yesterday (October 1), the US Government initiated a full shutdown, meaning agencies such as the SEC and CFTC are operating with minimal staff and halting non-essential functions, which could negatively impact BTC prices.
This often creates a void, resulting in ambiguous regulatory actions, which escalates the chances of delayed progress in crypto legislation and a lack of clear direction for institutions wishing to enter the market.
Markets generally respond unfavorably to uncertainty, and this unpredictability may compel institutional investors to postpone or cut back on their cryptocurrency investments until more solid conditions arise.
If the government shutdown affects regulatory oversight or operational aspects of financial markets, it could restrict inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs or the approval of additional cryptocurrency products.
SOL, XRP, LTC, and
Dogecoin
4.83%
Dogecoin
DOGE
Price
$0.2588
4.83% /24h
Volume in 24h
$3.13B
Price 7d
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are all expected to be near the final approval for their respective spot ETF applications. However, the shutdown could postpone this, which would act as another bearish factor for the overall trading market.
A further potential impact from the shutdown revolves around the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. It’s anticipated that the Fed will lower interest rates by an additional 25bps following last month’s cut. Yet, the uncertainty due to the Government shutdown might cause this decision to be delayed, or in the worst-case scenario, Powell may state no changes to interest rates.
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Wave Pattern Indicating $119K then Below $100K
Applying Elliott Wave theory to the Bitcoin 1-day chart shows this configuration resembles a significant zigzag in wave 2/B. A critical supply zone commences near $119K, where we anticipate the next significant selling pressure to initiate.
Alarmingly, BTC price is hovering just a few hundred dollars below the $119,000 mark, which indicates a substantial shift may be imminent. This timing coincides perfectly as investors are rapidly growing more euphoric, displaying green P&L cards and suggesting outrageous price targets for their preferred tokens.
If Bitcoin does reject between $119,000 and $120,000, it stands a high chance of dropping below $100,000. This downtrend scenario would be rendered invalid if the Bitcoin price closes above $124,500 by day’s end.
Crypto Fear and Greed Chart
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Another factor to contemplate when analyzing the market’s trajectory in October and beyond is the traditional Fear & Greed index. After reaching 44 last week, firmly within the ‘fear’ zone, it is currently at 64, reflecting a sentiment of ‘greed’ in the trading market.
When combined with technical analysis and other indicators, the Fear and Greed Index has historically provided a reliable gauge for crypto price predictions. Warren Buffett aptly stated, “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.”
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The post Forget ‘Uptober’, its REKTOBER : Bitcoin Price Set to CRASH Below $100k appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
