Analysts Forecast Bitcoin Value Might Decline by $100K: Here’s the Reason
With the recent de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, analysts are refocusing on Bitcoin’s upcoming significant movements. Earlier this week, Bitcoin’s value dipped momentarily below the $100,000 threshold after Iran launched missile strikes on U.S. military installations in Qatar. Although the price rebounded to $108,000 by Wednesday, derivatives data indicates a potential decline in crypto holder confidence. The looming question is whether a further correction may be imminent.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin’s perpetual futures funding rate dropped to its lowest point in seven weeks, an unusual occurrence, particularly with rising prices. Typically, traders holding long positions pay fees to maintain leverage; thus, negative rates indicate an increase in short positions.
This change may be linked to broader geopolitical and economic price swings. The renewed U.S. trade war, reignited in April, is now nearing critical deadlines. An agreement with the Eurozone expires on July 9, heightening concerns about escalated tensions. With over 50 tariff modifications since 2017, the unpredictable approach of the Trump administration continues to exacerbate crypto holder unease.
Recent data reveals the U.S. trade deficit rose by 11% in May.
This occurs despite Trump’s assertions that tariffs would significantly reduce the trade deficit. pic.twitter.com/nz0NsHrEXY
— FactPost (@factpostnews) June 26, 2025
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Economic Concerns and AI Valuation Buzz Intensify Pressure
The most recent U.S. GDP report indicated a 0.5% contraction year-over-year in Q1, primarily due to an expanding trade deficit. Nonetheless, small-cap U.S. stocks are on the rise, with the Russell 2000 index reaching a four-month peak, while BTC struggles to stay above $112,000. This disconnect is frustrating for Bitcoin advocates.
Moreover, apprehensions about inflated valuations spurred by AI enthusiasm are influencing market sentiment. Gartner analysts have cautioned that many “agentic AI” initiatives remain experimental and are often utilized incorrectly. As investors become increasingly wary, profit-taking above $105,000 appears more probable.
A possible trigger for a selloff originated from Bit Digital, a publicly traded Bitcoin miner, which revealed plans to cease BTC mining and reallocate reserves into Ether. By March 31, the firm possessed 417.6 BTC and 24,434 ETH. This unexpected strategic shift raises concerns that other miners might follow suit, especially given that crypto mining profitability has recently hit a two-month low.
The company also announced a $150 million public offering of 75 million common shares at $2 each, intending to utilize the proceeds to acquire more Ether and concentrate on earning yield. Following the announcement, Bit Digital’s stock plummeted almost 19% over the week, closing at $1.99 on Friday, which included a 15% single-day decline. Shares fell to a low of $1.86 before a slight recovery in after-hours trading.
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Bitcoin Price: Two Potential Scenarios – Not a Total Collapse
Macroeconomic trends still favor a positive long-term outlook, maintaining pressure on central banks to sustain loose monetary policies, although short-term challenges persist. If miners begin liquidating and derivatives data continues to show caution, BTC might retest the $100,000 level before making another attempt to rally.
- Significant Pullback: The market often corrects sharply due to weak long-side conviction once the squeeze concludes.
- Continued Rally: If the rally broadens in base level, funding turns positive, and prices begin to climb again after a brief pause.
We either directly breach this bull flag on BTC today or….
We experience a slight drop and then break it to the upside
Given how $BTC has been performing, I expect it to reach ATHs quite soon
We went through the most challenging times and are still above $100K; LET’S GO! pic.twitter.com/cbzOAdq5UH
— Momin (@mominsaqib) June 27, 2025
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Key Takeaways
- Negative Funding Rates: Despite rising values, traders are heavily betting against Bitcoin, increasing the likelihood of either a short squeeze or a trading market pullback.
- Geopolitical Instability: Tensions from the trade war and sluggish U.S. GDP growth are contributing to a cautious approach towards risk assets, including Bitcoin.
- Miner Transition to ETH: Bit Digital’s shift from Bitcoin to ETH indicates decreasing miner confidence and may generate additional selling pressure on BTC.
- Two Likely Scenarios: Historical trends imply either a sharp correction or a continuation upward once funding turns positive—watch derivatives closely.
The post Analysts Predict BTC Price Could Lose $100K: Here’s Why appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
