Are Oil Prices Poised to Surge Due to Iran-Israel Tensions: What Implications Does This Have for Bitcoin Value in June?
Amid the persistent unrest in the Middle East, numerous eager investors have shifted their focus towards crude oil investments, anticipating a rise in prices due to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Yet, just half an hour into trading, oil prices had only seen a 3% increase.
Over 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and should it ever be closed, a considerable spike in oil prices is expected. Many investors have their sights set on the $100 per barrel mark, a threshold not reached since July 2022.
Twenty-five years ago, a threat from Iran to shut down the Strait of Hormuz would have caused crude oil prices to soar by 50%. Nowadays, it seems to go unnoticed. A different world. #CrudeOil pic.twitter.com/TRDVQndnzO
— Dave Reiter (@TradesByDave) June 22, 2025
Oil Prices Slow To React To The Ongoing Conflict In The Middle East
While many anticipated a surge in oil prices at the crypto market opening at 6 pm ET, just 30 minutes into trading, oil was up a mere 3%, following US military airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend.
This kind of military action, combined with the looming threat of the Strait of Hormuz’s closure, has prompted many investors to acquire crude oil shares, hoping for a significant price breakout.
However, at 6:27 p.m. ET on June 22, Brent crude saw a rise of 3.17%, trading at $79.45 per barrel, while the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), traded up $3.18 to $76.19 per barrel during early trading in New York.
Previous incidents at this scale have led to much larger fluctuations in the crude market. For instance, when Iran-affiliated militants attacked Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facility in September 2019, momentarily disrupting 5% of global oil circulating supply, Brent futures surged by nearly 20% in a single day, marking an unprecedented one-day price escalation.
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A similar event occurred following the US drone strike that killed Iranian Military Officer Qassem Soleimani in early 2020, resulting in a price spike of around 4% due to fears of regional retaliation. The current tepid response underscores how insulated markets have become from geopolitical turmoil.
The coordinated US airstrikes targeted Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan overnight, causing notable damage to enrichment and research facilities. Tehran has vowed to retaliate, but energy markets are wagering that any escalation will be limited.
Initially, President Trump announced that all three nuclear sites had been completely destroyed; however, it has since been revealed that Fordow remained intact, and the Iranians may have relocated uranium deposits prior to the assault.
No significant movement in oil prices is expected until the Iranians make a decision regarding the Strait of Hormuz. If they opt to disrupt or close the Strait, crude oil prices could soar to $100, a figure not seen since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Oil Not Spiking Like Many Believed As BTC Reclaims $100,000 – Is BTC The WW3 Hedge?
Late yesterday, BTC dipped to $98,500, prompting speculation of a decline toward $80,000-85,000. Nonetheless, within two hours, BTC swiftly bounced back to $100,000, currently trading at $101,900.
This ongoing strength in Bitcoin, in contrast to the unexpected response from oil prices as trading market analysts assumed, positions the leading digital asset as a prime investment during this turbulent period in the Middle East.
Traditionally, when Iran and Israel engaged in serious conflict, especially with the US’s involvement, it would have been seen as a black swan event for crypto, usually resulting in a BTC crash that would drag down the broader market.
However, Bitcoin’s price ceiling to settle below $100,000 is remarkably optimistic, which is further supported by BlackRock’s ongoing positive net inflows into its BTC ETF. Other asset managers, such as Fidelity, are also witnessing healthy inflows into their own Bitcoin ETF.
Another indicator of Bitcoin’s prominence as the leading investment asset right now is the increasing BTC dominance (BTC.D), which reflects its proportion of the total crypto market capitalization. While most altcoins continue to decline, Bitcoin has remained stable, causing BTC.D to rise from 64.8% to 65.8% in the past three days alone.
Although the increase in BTC.D highlights the current weakness in altcoins, it also illustrates the strength of Bitcoin and its newfound role as a hedge against the impending war.
All attention will now be focused on the opening of US TradFi markets and any new statements from President Trump regarding the US’s stance on the Israel/Iran situation.
There is hope that the conflict may be nearing its end due to a lack of missile attacks from Iran overnight and Israel’s statement indicating they wish to avoid a war of attrition.
Any announcements of a ceasefire or an outright conclusion to this tragic conflict in the Middle East could likely result in a considerable surge across the trading market, potentially propelling Bitcoin to new highs, finally establishing the $110,000 level as support before embarking on the anticipated journey toward $150,000.
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