ARK Invest Increases BTC Bull Case Target to $2.4M by 2030 Due to Institutional Demand

The asset management company ARK Invest has notably upgraded its optimistic projection for BTC (BTC), now estimating a possible price of $2.4 million by the close of 2030.

This updated figure, which is an increase from a prior estimate of $1.5 million, signifies a rise in institutional adoption and Bitcoin’s developing status as “digital gold,” as noted in ARK’s most recent report published on April 24.

Alongside its favorable bull case, ARK further increased its bear case projection to $500,000 and its base case to $1.2 million. These numbers constitute an enhancement from the firm’s previous forecasts of $300,000 and $710,000, respectively.

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ARK Analyst Suggests Bitcoin Predictions Driven by Market Potential and Limited Token supply

David Puell, an analyst at ARK, elaborated that the updated projections derive from Bitcoin’s total addressable trading market (TAM), anticipated trading market penetration levels, and its fixed circulating supply timeline.

“Institutional investment is the primary driver of our bull case,” Puell emphasized, predicting Bitcoin could seize 6.5% of the $200 trillion global financial market—excluding gold—in a favorable scenario.

A significant factor influencing ARK’s estimate is Bitcoin’s increasing acceptance as a digital equivalent to gold. Puell indicated that BTC might capture as much as 60% of gold’s $18 trillion trading market capitalization by 2030.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s function as a “safe haven” asset in developing markets, safeguarding against inflation and currency depreciation, comprises 13.5% of the bullish case valuation.

BREAKING NEWS:

ARK Invest refreshes their BTC price outlook for 2030:

Bull Case: $2.4 million
Base Case: $1.2 million
Bear Case: $500k pic.twitter.com/kjeowl3CU9

— Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDailyio) April 24, 2025

Other elements impacting ARK’s estimation encompass the adoption by nation-states, corporate treasury strategies, and the growth of Bitcoin-centric financial services.

Should BTC hit ARK’s $2.4 million goal, its crypto market capitalization would leap to $49.2 trillion, based on a token supply of 20.5 million Bitcoin by 2030.

This valuation would exceed the combined GDP of both the United States and China, positioning Bitcoin to surpass gold as the largest asset in the world—more than doubling gold’s current crypto market capitalization of $22.5 trillion.

Even in ARK’s most conservative estimates, BTC would need a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of between 32% and 53%, a considerable achievement for an asset already valued in the trillions.

This report arrives as Bitcoin rebounds from its 2025 low of $75,160 to hover around $94,000, supported by favorable trading market conditions and the Trump administration’s formation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

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Bitcoin Becomes the 5th Largest Asset

As of April 23, BTC surpassed Alphabet to secure its position as the fifth most valuable asset globally, achieving a trading market cap of $1.87 trillion. This achievement occurred during Bitcoin’s noticeable separation from U.S. tech stocks, with BTC climbing 15% in April, outpacing the Nasdaq 100.

– Tech futures declining
– Dollar weakening
– Gold reaching new ATH
– BTC breaking out/decoupling

Recognize our current position. pic.twitter.com/XqZRlEHj39

— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) April 21, 2025

Investor sentiment has been strengthened by President Trump’s supportive BTC measures, including the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) and alleviating concerns regarding Federal Reserve independence and tariffs from China.

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