Bitcoin USD Prepares for Fed: What insights do Retail Sales MoM provide for FOMC?
Anticipation surrounds Bitcoin USD as it is set to surge following the interest rate cuts. This indicates the beginning of assessing whether 
BTC ▲0.79% could potentially add another $3 trillion to its crypto market capitalization, driving Bitcoin’s price to 200k USD by 2025.
At present, BTC hovers slightly above $115,000 as it approaches one of the year’s pivotal macro weeks.
With the Federal Reserve’s meeting set for September 17, we should examine whether Bitcoin USD can hit new all-time highs or dip below $100,000.
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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $115,046, having slipped 0.2% over the last 24 hours. According to 99Bitcoins TA, BTC must break above $116,000 decisively to confirm momentum towards the $120,000–$125,000 range. A failure to break out could result in a retest of the $107,500 base level level.
On-chain data indicated that short-term holders booked $189 million in daily profits last week, contributing to near-term selling pressure.
“Bitcoin now finds itself at the heart of macroeconomic tensions, which could sway it in either direction based on the Fed’s policy stance,” noted MEXC chief analyst Shawn Young.
Based on the CME FedWatch tool, markets are estimating a 96% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate reduction. Furthermore, if Jerome Powell adopts a dovish tone, Bitcoin could soar past $120,000 as funds move from bonds to riskier assets.
Nevertheless, the Fed faces a tricky situation, as they observe weaker labor data that supports cuts, while persistent inflation around 3% complicates their decision-making process.
BTC has been confined to a broad “air gap” trading range, oscillating between $108,000 and $116,000 since August.
Breaking the $116K price ceiling could pave the way for a robust recovery for it and other leading cryptocurrencies, while repeated failures may drag BTC down towards $105K.
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ETF inflows and treasury demand indicate that institutions are gearing up for a positive outcome from the Fed. Spot BTC ETFs recorded $2.3 billion in inflows last week, marking the highest figures seen in months, suggesting proactive positioning in advance of the Fed meeting.
Moreover, CoinGlass data indicates that Bitcoin open interest is maintained by a strong entity.
Another point of interest: New Census Bureau data reveals that US retail sales increased by +0.5% in July, aligning with predictions. June’s numbers were adjusted upwards to +0.9%. This report, monitoring retail spending excluding food services, is closely analyzed as an indicator of consumer demand and general economic vitality.
For Bitcoin’s outlook, a dovish Fed is needed, with ongoing ETF inflows setting the stage for a price breakout towards $125K and above. However, if Powell’s words are overly cautious, BTC may remain ensnared between $107K and $115K, biding time for the next potential trigger.
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Key Takeaways
- Everyone is anticipating Bitcoin USD to surge following the interest rate reductions. This signifies the beginning of determining whether $200k is achievable.
- For BTC, we require a dovish Fed, and ongoing ETF investments could facilitate a price breakout towards $125K and beyond.
The post Bitcoin USD Braces For Fed: What do Retail Sales MoM reveal for FOMC? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
