Bitcoin USD Price Prepares For FOMC: Polymarket Suggests Reduction, Will Powell Follow Through?

In the coming 48 hours, two significant events that could sway the trading market are on the horizon. Tomorrow, Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve will declare new interest rates, and the following day, US President Donald Trump will hold a meeting with Premier Xi Jinping. No matter the results, the Bitcoin USD price is anticipated to react.

Currently, there are signs of strength in the trading market. BTC bulls have the opportunity to capitalize on the series of higher highs achieved over the weekend; however, it’s essential for structure traders to see if the digital gold will remain above the $110,000 mark.

At present, the Bitcoin USD price fluctuates between $114,000 and $115,000, reflecting an increase of +6% over the last week. Although it’s stable, the notable bounce since October 23 may serve as a springboard for further gains.

(Source: Coingecko)

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BTC USD Price Steady: Will Jerome Powell Follow Through?

Most traders on Coinglass are bullish. The long/short ratio on the monitored perpetual exchanges, including Binance and OKX, exceeds 1.

This favorable ratio indicates that a majority of traders are establishing more leveraged buy positions compared to shorts.

As this number increases ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, the likelihood of the BTC USD price climbing could increase, with hopes of closing above $118,000 and ideally reaching $120,000 by week’s end.

With the expansion of the long/short ratio, there has been a notable inflow into spot BTC exchanges. In the last eight hours, over $120M worth of Bitcoin has been purchased. Additionally, substantial funds are still entering Bitcoin futures exchanges.

(Source: Coinglass)

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a greater than +97% probability for a rate cut to the +3.75% to +4% range. Nonetheless, while experts are optimistic that the Fed will lower rates for the second time this year, the ultimate decision rests with the FOMC and Jerome Powell.

(Source: CME)

The Federal Reserve makes decisions based on data and closely watches various economic indicators, particularly inflation and employment figures. August saw job growth slow to only 22,000, the lowest since 2010. Labor data is anticipated to weaken further in September, especially due to the official reports being delayed by the government shutdown.

Conversely, inflation decreased slightly in August, with core PCE at +2.7%, exceeding the +2% target. Tariffs and lower immigration continue to drive inflation upwards, although reduced buyer interest for products is helping to balance the situation.

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Betters on Polymarket Anticipate a Rate Reduction

In the last meeting, Powell indicated that their outlook for employment and inflation has not shifted significantly since September, which opens the possibility for further easing.

However, some governors are advocating for a more aggressive rate cut. Governor Stephen Miran supports a +0.50% rate cut.

The general sentiment leans towards a rate cut, and if Jerome announces a +0.25% reduction, it could lead to the Bitcoin USD price, along with some of the leading Solana meme coins, moving upward.

Nevertheless, should the Fed opt for a +0.50% cut, gains will be magnified. In such a scenario, Bitcoin’s price could not only surpass $120,000 but might also exceed $126,000 within the next few days.

On the other hand, a decision not to cut or an unexpected rate increase could drive down some of the top cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin might fall to $110,000, pulling other leading coins lower along with it.

The uptrend news is that on Polymarket, the largest predictions trading market globally, participants foresee the FOMC implementing a +0.25% rate cut, with a probability of +98%.

(Source: Polymarket)

This strong belief in a rate decrease reflects the general expectations of economists.

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