If BTC Value Falls Apart, What Could be the Lowest?

What’s causing the crypto decline today? The price of BTC is having trouble making upward strides, but if Rektember takes a downturn, how far will Bitcoin USD drop?

As Bitcoin approaches a pivotal juncture in its four-year market cycle, uncertainty is growing. Traders are inquiring whether this inflection point may herald a significant downturn – here’s the breakdown.

Experts warn that the upcoming month could result in either a significant upswing or a substantial correction to $50,000. October is being highlighted as the crucial juncture.

Joao Wedson, the founder and CEO of crypto analysis company Alphractal, has strongly cautioned about the future outlook for Bitcoin.

Is Judgment Day for BTC Near?

In 2024, we emphasized that October 2025 might signify the end of a fascinating Bitcoin fractal cycle. If accurate, this could mark the official conclusion of this segment in BTC’s timeline.

Of course, it would be unwise to presume that… https://t.co/3dtekdPCFN pic.twitter.com/ZtndPv0vCm

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) September 3, 2025

He suggested that Bitcoin may be approaching the closing phase of its four-year repetition cycle, historically followed by bear markets.

Wedson noted that Bitcoin’s 15% drop from its peak could signify the onset of a longer downturn.

He emphasized that the current trend aligns with Alphractal’s “Repetition Fractal Cycle,” and October is typically when bearish sentiment builds and crypto market dynamics change.

Bitcoin Price Evaluation: Is BTC’s Declining Channel Preparing for a Breakout or Breakdown?

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s hourly chart displays mixed signals. The price has been stabilizing following recent fluctuations.

The candlestick patterns indicate a descending channel that emerged in late August, characterized by lower highs and lower lows.

This formation drove BTC down to the $109,500-$110,000 support level, where buyers intervened to mitigate the selling pressure.

(Source – Bitcoin USDT, TradingView)

At present, BTC is trading at approximately $110,049, reflecting a -2.5% decline just above that support zone.

The 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages are converging. This suggests short-term uncertainty and the potential for a sharp price breakout.

Should the $109,500 price floor be breached, selling could intensify, pushing the price towards $108,000. Conversely, if the level holds, Bitcoin may retest price ceiling near $111,000-$112,000.

As per CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin-to-stablecoin ratio on Binance is nearing 1, which has typically aligned with crypto market bottoms. This metric compares BTC reserves with stablecoin reserves on Binance.

The last instance it reached parity was in March, when Bitcoin fell to $78,000 before rebounding towards its $123,000 ledger high.

(Source: Bitcoin/Stablecoin Reserve Ratio – CryptoQuant)

This ratio has spiked to similar levels on two occasions since the last bear market.

The ratio has not been observed during past cycles except at the end of bear markets, and it appeared once more in March 2023. Its re-emergence now might not indicate a bottom but rather signal the onset of a larger correction.

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Could a Drop Below $108K Induce Forced Selling for BTC?

Both sides have hotspots in the Bitcoin liquidation heatmap supplied by Coinglass.

(Source: BTC Liquidation Heatmap – Coinglass)

On the upside, the liquidation leverage lies between $112,000 and $114,000. Any upward movement from this range would trigger a series of short liquidations, potentially creating a squeeze if momentum builds.

Liquidation levels appear to be negative, in the range of $108,000 to $106,000. Roughly 20M-40M positions are accumulating in this area.

According to analysts, falling below this threshold could provoke forced selling, leading to a larger decrease in Bitcoin’s value.

The comprehensive liquidation structure suggests that traders are positioned on both sides. Shorts risk exposure below $108000, while longs are at risk above $112000.

The heatmap illustrates an ongoing struggle between bulls and bears, indicating a potential sharp move may occur once available volume levels on either side have been challenged.

The latest Crypto Fear and Greed Index from CoinGlass indicates a reading of 56, which is neutral but suggests a tendency towards greed.

This points to a slightly bullish sentiment despite investor caution. Historically, when the index moves into greed while BTC maintains high trading levels, markets often experience short-term corrections as profit-taking begins.

(Source: BTC Fear and Greed Index – Coinglass)

A sign of mild greed indicates that buyers remain active. However, if momentum wanes, the likelihood of a pullback increases.

For BTC, this could signal heightened volatility in the current range. Traders are observing carefully to determine if the trend towards greed precedes a cooling phase before any upward push.

Charts shared by Wedson on X show that BTC/USD aligns with historical cycle trends.

Nonetheless, this cycle possesses crucial distinctions. One of the most significant is the prominent involvement of institutional investors and Bitcoin’s enhanced reputation as a macro asset.

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The article If BTC Price Collapses, How Low Will It Go? first appeared on 99Bitcoins.