The New Great Recession: Victors and Defeated After the Iran Conflict
Are we heading towards a recession in 2025? How is anyone supposed to afford to eat in this climate? By all indicators, the U.S. economy appears to be thriving: Inflation has decreased (though still persistent), Bitcoin is rising, conflicts have ceased, and economists are transitioning from a “soft landing” scenario to an outlook of “no landing” whatsoever.
Despite the economic landscape appearing to “show improvement,” ironic tweets like the following are gaining traction:
I finally settled my Costco hotdog bill
#blessed pic.twitter.com/ZqacZVb6jI
— Blaze (@Blaze5921) June 24, 2025
We’re oblivious to the economic truths; something vital is slipping away from us, and it’s more than just the ketchup on a financed Costco hot dog.
What’s the current state of the economy? Who are the winners and losers in this altered reality?
Are We Heading Towards a Recession in 2025? Winner: Affirm and Klarna
Let us clarify: FICO is set to incorporate “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) loans into credit scores, thus providing lenders with better insights into consumer debt.
The key point is that these installment arrangements—accounting for over $116 billion in purchases last year—were not previously reported, leading to gaps in credit evaluations.
Those relying on Affirm, Klarna, or other BNPL services should brace themselves. It’s important to note: credit scores didn’t exist prior to 1989, and they aren’t a necessity.
Still a Winner, Technically: The United States AAA Credit Rating
Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating to Aa1 last May. This confirms that all three major rating agencies have cut America’s credit score.
The nation is $36 trillion in debt, facing soaring interest expenses, while political factions resemble toddlers playing a dangerous game with the debt ceiling.
The US National Debt has surpassed $37 trillion.
Our government is spending $7.1 trillion
The U.S. government budget deficit exceeds $2 trillion25% of all U.S. government revenue is being used to pay interest on the national debt. pic.twitter.com/I8UqhmMKDf
— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) June 20, 2025
Fitch Ratings also acknowledges that things aren’t completely crumbling, with a growth rate of 1.6% and a deficit reducing to 7.1% of GDP. It’s a messy situation, but it remains operational.
If this were another nation, the credit rating would be B-minus and declining. Nonetheless, it’s the U.S., and the landlord can’t be evicted.
Are We Heading Towards a Recession in 2025? Losers: People Living Paycheck to Paycheck
40% of Americans are now caught in a debt spiral that will likely lead to default. Even individuals earning over $150k are maxing out their credit cards to cope with inflation. This signals the arrival of Great Depression 2.0.
Here are some alarming statistics:
- 35% of Americans using credit cards anticipate maxing out at least one before the year concludes.
- Another 38% admit to using credit cards for expenses they previously wouldn’t have.
- Almost two-thirds (62%) of employed Americans indicated they are contemplating a side job in the next six months.
- 31% of Americans said that if the freeze on student loan payments were lifted (which has indeed happened), they would need to reduce their spending in the latter half of the year.
To wrap up, while assets may be rising, the overall economy resembles a fragile house of cards. People are on the brink of disaster, which likely explains why we’ll see the monetary presses activated shortly.
Join the 99Bitcoins News Discord for the Latest Crypto market Updates
Key Insights
- Are we heading towards a recession in 2025? How can anyone afford to eat amidst this economic situation?
- All attention will be on Powell next month, as inflation persists and labor indicators soften.
The article The New Great Recession: Winners and Losers Post-Iran War first appeared on 99Bitcoins.
