Will the Fed Lower Rates at FOMC This Week? Bitcoin USD Price Rises as Bullish Event Approaches
Crypto markets are gearing up for the highly anticipated FOMC meeting this week, with the BTC/USD price popular upwards in expectation.
Bitcoin is rising as traders prepare for a potential interest-rate cut during this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, a decision that could influence sentiment in both the crypto and traditional financial markets.
As of Monday, BTC (Bitcoin) was trading close to $113,600, continuing its recovery from last week.
Investors are broadly anticipating that the Fed will lower borrowing costs when the Federal Open Crypto market Committee convenes in Washington on October 28-29.
The policy update is set for 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing thirty minutes later.
What Are the Chances of a 25-Basis-Point Rate Decrease at the October FOMC Meeting?
Expectations for a rate cut have risen since the September inflation figures indicated a slight cooling trend, strengthening the belief that the Fed may relax policy to foster growth.
As per CME Fed-funds futures, the markets are now reflecting an almost certain chance of a 25-basis-point cut, adjusting the target range to 3.75%-4.00%.
Reuters reported that the September CPI increased by +3% year on year, slightly below the 3.1% prediction. The softer data leaves room for additional easing.
BTC began the week within a narrow range, trading between $111,271 and $113,869. Market fluidity was limited after the weekend, with many desks taking precautions ahead of the Fed’s decision.
In terms of interest rates, the pivotal question is whether the slowing inflation trend can persist. Fitch’s Olu Sonola stated that the Fed would likely feel “satisfied with inflation remaining around 3% for the next few months,” a situation that could allow gradual rate cuts while monitoring the labor trading market for stress points.
The policy statement is expected to be released on Wednesday, October 29, at 2:00 p.m. ET. Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 2:30 p.m. ET. The Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, will release on Friday, October 31, after the meeting, meaning policymakers will make decisions without the updated data.
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Bitcoin Price Forecast: Is Bitcoin Following a Similar Recovery Pattern as the 2020 Covid Crash?
Bitcoin’s price resurgence is garnering interest for its resemblance to the rebound after the 2020 Covid crash, analyst Ted Pillows commented in a recent news on X.
$BTC rebound from the tariff collapse is paralleling the timeline from March 2020.
While many predict a cycle peak, I believe the 4-year cycle may be over. pic.twitter.com/WzIkEEgY1Q
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 26, 2025
He presented a chart illustrating how the current “Trump’s China Tariff Collapse” trend in 2025 reflects the bottom seen in March 2020. Both scenarios exhibit sharp downturns followed by rapid, V-shaped recoveries.
In early 2020, Bitcoin dropped below $4,000 before embarking on a consistent rally that pushed it past $60,000.
The recent pattern in 2025 mirrors this, characterized by a sharp decrease to approximately $100,000, followed by a swift recovery above $110,000.
From a technical standpoint, this setup implies a potential reversal. The pattern of support is symmetrical, as is the rebound candle, indicating that dip buyers are active and that the selling pressure may be faltering.
Momentum could suggest that BTC is on track to establish a higher low signal, potentially marking the start of a new long-term optimistic trend.
Conversely, Crypto Tony, a well-known crypto asset expert, pointed out that the 4-hour chart price action indicates a phase of short-term consolidation, with BTC trading between $109,800 and $115,800 ranges.
His perspective suggests a potential dip toward the bottom of that range before making another upward attempt.
The chart demonstrates a gradual pattern of higher lows, typically associated with sustained upward momentum.
However, traders are particularly attentive to the CME gap hovering around $109,800, which could draw prices in the near term, setting the stage for a more evident breakout.
For now, participants in the market remain cautious, and the current levels are perceived as potentially near the peak of the cycle. Yet, analysts like Pillows suggest that there are connections to the recovery phase of 2020.
He argues that the four-year trading market cycle might have bottomed out earlier than previously thought, signaling Bitcoin is on the cusp of entering a prolonged optimistic trend.
Volume is not exhibiting major fluctuations, indicating that traders are awaiting a clear signal to emerge.
This might soon be followed by a brief correction bridging the CME gap, a trend common in Bitcoin’s recent history, prior to another surge.
Currently, Bitcoin’s outlook remains cautiously bullish, but is susceptible to a short-term dip. If the $110,000 base level level holds, momentum could rejuvenate next week.
However, if that support is breached, sellers could regain dominance, driving prices back toward the mid-$100,000 range.
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The article Will the Fed Cut Rates at FOMC This Week? Bitcoin USD Price Pushes High as Bull Event Looms first appeared on 99Bitcoins.
