Will Traditional Finance Eliminate Bitcoin USD Price swings? Insights on Development from Forex?
Wall Street might be moderating Bitcoin’s fluctuations, making BTC USD slightly resemble a prominent forex pairing.
On Sunday, Sept. 21, BTC lingered around $115,700, as a pressing question emerged: is TradFi stabilizing Bitcoin’s swings or altering their form?
The discussion intensified following new investments into the leading US spot BTC ETF and fresh comments from Michael Saylor.
In a Saturday interview on the Token Stories podcast, Saylor remarked that reduced price price swings is beneficial: “You want the price swings to decrease so that large institutions feel secure entering the trading market and scaling.”
He referred to it as a typical “growth phase” as products and liquidity enhance.
On the derivatives front, CME reported that the notional open interest in crypto options reached a peak of $7.1Bn on Sept. 9, primarily driven by Bitcoin contracts, showcasing that hedging tools for large participants are continuously evolving.
Our Crypto options notional open interest reached an unprecedented $7.1B on September 9, propelled by ledger highs in our Bitcoin contracts.
Institutional investors are no longer merely investigating digital assets; they are actively employing options for risk management and capital efficiency.… pic.twitter.com/9gN9zkM5QP
— CME Group (@CMEGroup) September 11, 2025
TradFi is likely not going to eliminate BTC USD volatility. Instead, it might alleviate some extreme fluctuations, promoting a more mean-reverting trend, albeit with sporadic shocks that can still affect the crypto market.
Key observations: whether ETF inflows remain positive as the quarter ends, how options price expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and if regulatory developments or geopolitical events disrupt implied market fluctuation.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Cycle Trap: Is 2025 Repeating the 2017 and 2021 Pattern?
As per an analysis by crypto holder Merlijn, Bitcoin’s long-term chart is again reflecting its historical cycle trends.
BTC IS DOING IT AGAIN.
Each cycle has the same cycle trap.
Flush. Confuse. Then surge higher.2017: Confirmed
2021: Confirmed
2025: LoadingDisregard the playbook, and you’ll miss the parabola. pic.twitter.com/xnYMx5ZSvB
— Merlijn The Investor (@MerlijnTrader) September 21, 2025
The chart indicates that every significant price surge since 2017 has experienced a mid-cycle “trap” — a sharp pullback that forces weaker participants out before the market’s resurgence.
In 2017, Bitcoin experienced a swift rise, followed by a sharp drop that shook confidence, only to soar to historic heights a few months later.
The identical pattern was observed in 2021, with prices stabilizing around $60,000 and then increasing significantly.
Merlijn’s current chart also suggests 2025 is likely to be another occurrence of this pattern.
Bitcoin USD climbed to $100,000, then pulled back, resulting in a new phase of flushing and confusion. The price has remained above $115,000 and has surged once it returned to six figures.
The analysis indicates existing downward barrier level levels, which have typically yielded following these cycle traps, thereby resulting in parabolic advances.
The green zones on the chart illustrate prior acceleration phases, each concluding with new all-time highs.
BTC could be on the cusp of another explosive surge if the pattern unfolds once more. Merlijn succinctly encapsulated the sequence: “Flush. Confuse. Then shoot higher.”
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Is BTC USD Weekly Chart Pointing Toward a Massive Q4 Rally?
Ash Crypto shared Bitcoin’s weekly chart, which is signaling a classic hidden optimistic divergence.
Bitcoin WEEKLY HIDDEN BULLISH DIVERGENCE IS YET TO UNFOLD
A HUGE BTC RALLY IS ON THE HORIZON FOR Q4 pic.twitter.com/ZihXku43ag
— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) September 21, 2025
The price has formed higher lows exceeding $115,000 while the weekly RSI recently recorded lower lows and is on an upward trajectory. Such mismatches frequently indicate trend continuation rather than reversal.
Buyers sustained the rising base around $114,000-$115,000, indicating that sellers couldn’t force a deeper correction.
The RSI has rebounded from a downward trendline in the mid-50s, injecting momentum back into the upward movement.
The immediate target is $120,000, aligning with the top of the recent weekly closes. A definitive close beyond that would open the door to $128,000-$130,000, where previous barrier level lies.
Bulls posit that this setup could spark a new advance in Q4 if strength builds through that range.
Currently, the structure remains encouraging: consistent uptake at elevated levels, enhancing momentum, and a definite boundary. Maintaining the $114,000-$115,000 level keeps the signal intact. Failing to hold it would undermine the bullish case and postpone any breakout.
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