Will US CPI Indicate Another Rates Reduction? $400 Inflation Rebate? Expert Anticipates Upcoming FOMC Decision and Bitcoin USD Response

Looking for a 400 inflation Refund? Unfortunately, if you’re not in New York, you’re out of luck! Nevertheless, the battle against inflation is back in the spotlight, and economists are scrutinizing Trump’s assertion that he has “conquered it.”

Inflation in the US has eased somewhat, but for countless Americans, the checkout experience still feels like daylight robbery. Essential expenses such as groceries, rents, fuel, and vital daily needs continue to be uncomfortably high.

Here’s what you should be aware of and whether interest rate cuts might stave off a recession.

Inflation Is Slowing, But Prices Haven’t Decreased. Is The US Economy in Trouble?

As per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation currently hovers in the 3–3.5% range, down from the 9% high of 2022. However, “lower inflation” doesn’t translate to lower prices. It simply indicates costs are increasing at a slower pace, and after years of cumulative hikes, families still find themselves paying substantially more than they did prior to the pandemic.

Additionally, postponed government reports due to shutdowns have led analysts to rely on FRED and private models, which indicate ongoing price pressures in food, housing, and healthcare.

The net favorability of U.S. economic policies among consumers remains near the lower end of the historical spectrum (close to recession levels) pic.twitter.com/pDo4KSzk74

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 13, 2025

Core inflation, which omits food and energy, has softened to about 2.9%, yet the categories that matter most (e.g. rents, childcare, and medical expenses) stay stubbornly elevated. Moreover, nearly 52% to 67% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, according to Investopedia.

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Trump’s Claim vs. Economic Reality: Is POTUS Misleading About the Economy?

Trump’s recent assertion that his administration has “vanquished inflation” does not align well with the statistics. Economists attribute more to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases and the recovery of token supply chains than to any political efforts.

Nonetheless, public perception drives political outcomes. Consumer confidence remains weak, as indicated by University of Michigan surveys, and many voters do not perceive the improvements that the headline figures suggest.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve is navigating a challenging dilemma in the upcoming FOMC on October 28, deciding whether to maintain elevated rates to control inflation or to cut rates too soon and risk reigniting inflation. The current benchmark rate is 4.25%, with policymakers indicating a gradual easing path through 2026.

In her inaugural address as Philadelphia Fed president, Anna Paulson stated that the central bank must “manage the risks to employment and price stability.”

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Final Thoughts on Inflation: Will the Economy Rebound Soon?

Real wage growth continues to lag behind cumulative inflation by about 7%, according to FRED data. Food expenses have risen by 25%, rents are up 22%, and inflation in services persists. Despite record-low unemployment rates, the majority of workers feel less affluent than they did three years ago.

Economists anticipate inflation will remain around 3% into 2026, with only a slow return to the Fed’s 2% objective. As Paulson remarked, “We’ll have to navigate our way toward neutrality.”

While inflation is moderating, it’s not sufficiently enough for households to feel any respite. Currently, markets and the broader American public require QE before the debt burdens become unmanageable.

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